In the Midst of a Health Crisis, also Take Care of your Financial Health

For years I’ve not been posting on this site. That’s about to change. For about 6 weeks I’ve been posting regularly on Facebook, which is essentially garbage. Facebook, that is. I will repost them again here by stamping them to the day. In the mean time, this morning I posted the following on my Facebook page.

For your health concerns, talk to your doctor. For your financial health, don’t reach out to a 30 something financial genius who has never seen a recession or a bear market. I suggest you read this.

I’ve been following financial markets for nearly 30 years (hence the reference to “30-years industry” in one of my earlier posts). I made good money trading stocks during one recession (2001) and lost quite a bit during the 2008 financial crisis. I read a lot on finance, economy and other topics that are boring to most people. Before 2009, I got it right more often than I got it wrong (reverse is true since 2009). In fact, I pretty much nailed the 2008 financial crisis by giving early warning to the listers of my radio show MMGL. Early listeners of the show can attest to this. I have no vested interest in any of the things I say here. I just want to share my thoughts and hope it will help a few. Take what I m saying for what its worth.

I believe Coronavirus has already caused a global economic catastrophe. A global recession is underway. Jobs will be lost. Life gets difficult. Save the savings. Save more. Be prepared for financially tough times. Do not speculate in financial markets. An average person stands no chance to make money trading in these volatile markets.

Trump and his presidency are total disasters even before Coronavirus arrived. (Everything Trump touches, dies.) Many of us have realized from day 1 that the emperor has no clothes. As David Frum said in his Twitter feed yesterday, “Trump world is in that phase when the sucker begins to suspect that he has been scammed by the time-share company. Naturally, the sucker’s anger first turns against everyone who warned against buying the timeshare ..”

In the short term, the liquidity injections by Fed (the $1.5 trillion announced this week and $1 trillion has already been dispensed) not only act as cushion for market drops, they could also cause rip-roaring rallies. I expect a rally this week. I won’t trust those rallies. In the long run, a sustained rebound in stocks is dependent on economic recovery. An economic recovery will happen slowly, not suddenly. Definitely not when people are living in fear like they are now. I don’t know what future holds. But I can tell you this much, this looks and feels much much worse than 2008 financial crisis. Back then the central banks had some credibility left. We had competent and honest teams in the White House (yes, even during GWB presidency). Not now.

Be careful with your health and wealth. Very careful.